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🔴 HALT
$0.00
Wallet pUSD
4
Open Positions
1
BUYs Today
1
Closes Today
$-0.04
Realised Today
$-2.55
Unrealised
$-2.59
Day Total

Last BUY: 2026-06-08T00:32:45 · TEMPORAL_ARB · NO us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-2

Real positions unavailable: unsupported format string passed to NoneType.__format__

📜 Today's Real Fires Timeline (2026-06-08)

Time UTCKindPlaySide / ReasonSlugPricePnL
00:33:17CLOSETEMPORAL_ARBSL_FIREus-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-2$0.660$-0.04
00:32:45BUYTEMPORAL_ARBNOus-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-2$0.655—

🎯 Per-Play Today

🟢 = armed for real money · ⚫ = paper-only / fired today via legacy code

PlayBUYs TodayCloses TodayRealised PnL
🟢 CRYPTO00$+0.00
🟢 NEG_RISK00$+0.00
🟢 NEWS_EDGE00$+0.00
🟢 NEWS_FADE_LATE00$+0.00
🟢 TEMPORAL_ARB11$-0.04

🤖 Bot Health

TRADING_MODE: real · HALT: 🔴 ON (paused)
REAL_TRADING_PLAYS: CRYPTO, TEMPORAL_ARB, NEWS_FADE_LATE, NEG_RISK, NEWS_EDGE
Caps: stake $1.3 · max open $20.0 · max BUYs/day 10
Proxy: 🔴 proxy=? ip=None polymarket=err: (2026-06-08T15:16:02)
📊 Show market scanner stats (alerts/markets counters)
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Total Alerts
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📚 Show educational content (March 2026 case studies, How It Works, Forensics)

The Edge Is Real — Proven Examples This Month

These are real price movements from March 2026. Each one shows: what happened, how long you had to act, and what a $100 bet would have returned. Every example uses actual Polymarket CLOB data.

Mar 16 — CNBC reports: Trump asks China to delay Xi meeting "a month or so" due to Iran war. Polymarket: "Visit by Apr 30?" still at 88.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 45.5%, then to 2.6%
24-36 hrs
Window
+$746
Profit / $100
88.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 869 NO shares at $0.115 ($100). Trump literally said on camera it's delayed. Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for 24+ hours. NO shares now worth $0.974 = $846. Profit: $746.
YOUR WINDOWBUYSELL82%2%
Mar 25 — White House briefing: Karoline Leavitt confirms Trump-Xi rescheduled to May 14-15. "Visit by April 30?" trading at 34.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 2.6% within hours
~1 hr
Window
+$186
Profit / $100
34.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 152 NO shares at $0.655 ($100). May dates confirmed = "by April 30" is dead. NO shares now $0.974 = $148. Profit: $186 total including resolution.
YOUR WINDOWBUYSELL82%2%
Mar 8-29 — Time decay: Iran war ongoing, daily bombings, no ceasefire talks. "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" was 24.5% with 23 days of active war.
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? — steadily dropped to 1.5%
Days-weeks
Window
+$30
Profit / $100
24.5%
Entry Price
1.5%
Price Now
The trade: Buy NO at $0.755. Active bombing campaign, no diplomatic channel — ceasefire by month end was clearly unrealistic. Safest edge type: time decay. The closer the deadline, the more certain the profit.
BUYSELL52%0%
Mar 25 — Same news, opposite market: May 14-15 dates confirmed. "Visit by May 31?" jumped from 47.5% to 76%.
Will Trump visit China by May 31? — rose to 76%
~2 hrs
Window
+$60
Profit / $100
47.5%
Entry Price
76.0%
Price Now
The trade: Buy YES at $0.475. May 14-15 confirmed = "by May 31" very likely YES. Same news event, opposite side of a different market. $60 profit so far, likely $110+ at resolution.
BUYSELL90%76%

Three Types of Edge — All Confirmed

1. Breaking News (minutes to hours)
News breaks on Reuters/AP/Bluesky. Polymarket hasn't repriced. You bet in the gap. Trump/China had a 24-36 hour window. Most events: 1-4 hours.
2. Mispricing (days)
Markets stay wrong for days. "Regime fall" at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Ceasefire at 24.5% during active bombing. Obvious to anyone watching the news.
3. Time Decay (predictable)
Markets with hard deadlines converge to 0% or 100%. If the event clearly isn't happening, sell YES. Lowest risk, most reliable. The ceasefire market dropped steadily for 3 weeks.

Where the Edge Is Biggest (Non-Sports Categories)

CategoryVolumeEdge TypeWindowWhy
Geopolitics / Iran$324MBreaking newsHoursWars, strikes, diplomacy — wire services break first
US Politics / 2028$1.9BNews + mispricingHours-daysPolls, endorsements, candidate drops — huge volume but slow
Crypto (BTC/ETH)$119MBinance leadSeconds-minsBinance price moves first. Polymarket thresholds lag behind
Crude Oil$72MExchange leadMinutesIran war = oil spikes. NYMEX leads, Polymarket follows
Fed / Interest Rates$43MBreaking newsMins-hoursFOMC decisions, Fed speeches — wire services break first
World Elections$95MNews lagHours-daysLocal polls/coalition news breaks before English markets
Eurovision$49MBookmaker leadHoursRehearsal odds shift on traditional bookies first
Elon Musk Tweets$21MData leadReal-timeLiterally counting tweets — scraping X gives you the answer

Edge Alerts (200 total, 200 today)

Scanner checks 200 markets against 10 RSS feeds + 12 Bluesky accounts every 15 minutes. High-score alerts (5+) are emailed to adam@muswellrose.com.

2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 8Bluesky @nytimes
From @theathletic.com: President Trump is scheduled to attend Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Sq
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?95.3%$155Kattend, finals, nba, president, scheduled
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?9.1%$304Kpresident, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?21.5%$270Kpresident, trump
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 5The Block
Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried officially files for a presidential pardon from Trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?9.1%$304Kofficially, president, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?21.5%$270Kofficially, president, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?48.5%$192Kofficially, president, trump
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 6TASS English
Russia strongly condemns Kiev’s criminal attack on civilian train in Crimea — diplomat
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?45.5%$48Kany, military, russia, target
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?28.0%$72Kany, russia
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?1.1%$34Kany, russia
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 7TASS English
Pashinyan threatens opposition during his election campaign — OSCE report
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio99.7%$138Karmenia, election, held, june, parliamentary
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio0.1%$84Karmenia, election, held, june, parliamentary
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nat0.1%$37Karmenia, election, held, june, parliamentary
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 6TASS English
Israel’s attacks on Iran result in 15 injured
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kiran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$35Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 6SCMP China
UK’s Starmer gives Apple, Google 3 months to stop children sending nude images
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?12.5%$47Kkeir, minister, prime, starmer
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?0.8%$41Kkeir, minister, prime, starmer
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?37.5%$35Kkeir, minister, prime, starmer
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 9Jerusalem Post
Iran threatening Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq as it strikes Israel - analysis
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72K2026, groups, iran, iranian, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$35K2026, groups, iran, iranian, israel
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289K2026, iran, israel
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 11Jerusalem Post
Current round of Israel-Iran missile fire exchange is 'behind us,' source tells 'Post'
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?21.5%$159K2026, air, fire, israel, israeli
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?1.2%$148K2026, air, fire, iran, iranian
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72K2026, iran, iranian, israel, source
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 10Jerusalem Post
Khamenei, IRGC, Iranian military communication lines disrupted, source tells anti-regime outlet
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?1.8%$1.0M2026, iran, iranian, irgc, military
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?12.5%$82K2026, iran, iranian, irgc, military
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?2.8%$751K2026, iran, iranian, military, source
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 7Jerusalem Post
How Iran is trying to regain regional influence by striking Israel - analysis
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kinfluence, iran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$35Kinfluence, iran, israel
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 10Jerusalem Post
Netanyahu's Levi Eshkol moment: Why Israel defied Trump - analysis
Netanyahu out by June 30?1.8%$34Kbenjamin, israel, june, minister, netanyahu
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?21.5%$159K2026, israel, israeli, june
Trump out as President by June 30?0.7%$108K2026, june, office, trump
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 9Bloomberg Markets
Citadel Securities Sees Risk of Fed Forced to Raise Rates Soon
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2020.2%$1.1Maccording, fed, federal, interest, rates
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 202699.2%$783Kaccording, fed, federal, interest, rates
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 200.1%$682Kaccording, fed, federal, interest, rates
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 7NYT World
In Striking Israel, Iran Aims to Protect Its Regional Gains
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Khezbollah, iran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$35Khezbollah, iran, israel
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 9NYT World
Live Updates: Iran and Israel Move to De-Escalate After Cease-Fire Breaks Down
Netanyahu out by June 30?1.8%$34Kbenjamin, israel, minister, netanyahu, prime
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kcease, iran, israel, military
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 6Al Jazeera
IAEA chief says Iran-US nuclear talks in ‘complicated phase’
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?19.5%$451Kiran, nuclear
Iran Nuke before 2027?9.3%$31Kiran, nuclear
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?36.0%$28Kiran, nuclear
2026-06-08 14:34:20Score: 8Bluesky @nytimes
The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen said on Monday that it would stop Israeli ships from operati
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?22.5%$158Kisrael, israeli, missiles, yemen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?1.8%$1.0Miran, war
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:34:20Score: 8Bluesky @nytimes
From @theathletic.com: President Trump is scheduled to attend Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Sq
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?95.7%$153Kattend, finals, nba, president, scheduled
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kpresident, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?21.0%$272Kpresident, trump
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 13TASS English
Trump, Netanyahu speak over phone amid current escalation with Iran — TV
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kceasefire, current, escalation, iran, president
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?21.0%$272Kceasefire, current, escalation, iran, president
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?45.5%$188Kceasefire, current, escalation, iran, president
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 9TASS English
Israel halts strikes on Iran at Trump’s request, continues attacks on Lebanon — TV
Netanyahu out by June 30?1.8%$34Kbenjamin, israel, minister, netanyahu, prime
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kcontinues, iran, president, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?21.0%$272Kcontinues, iran, president, trump
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 7TASS English
Russia’s Almaz-Antey to showcase shipborne air defense systems at Fleet 2026 naval show
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?22.5%$158K2026, air, missile, naval, surface
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?1.2%$151K2026, air, missile, naval, surface
US strike on Cuba by December 31?39.0%$40Kair, missile, naval, surface
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 5Jerusalem Post
Smotrich reportedly proposes attacking 20-30 buildings in Dahiyeh for every Iranian missile
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?22.5%$158K2026, israeli, missile
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?1.2%$151K2026, iranian, missile
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?69.0%$59K2026, holds, iranian
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 12Jerusalem Post
Iran's military says attacks on Israel will cease if IDF does not strike southern Lebanon, Dahiyeh
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289K2026, cease, ceasefire, iran, israel
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.5%$3.1M2026, april, cease, ceasefire, iran
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2M2026, april, cease, ceasefire, iran
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 9Jerusalem Post
Iran threatening Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq as it strikes Israel - analysis
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72K2026, groups, iran, iranian, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$34K2026, groups, iran, iranian, israel
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289K2026, iran, israel
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 11Jerusalem Post
Current round of Israel-Iran missile fire exchange is 'behind us,' source tells 'Post'
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?22.5%$158K2026, air, fire, israel, israeli
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?1.2%$151K2026, air, fire, iran, iranian
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72K2026, iran, iranian, israel, source
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 10Jerusalem Post
Khamenei, IRGC, Iranian military communication lines disrupted, source tells anti-regime outlet
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?1.8%$1.0M2026, iran, iranian, irgc, military
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?12.5%$82K2026, iran, iranian, irgc, military
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?2.8%$751K2026, iran, iranian, military, source
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 7Jerusalem Post
How Iran is trying to regain regional influence by striking Israel - analysis
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kinfluence, iran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$34Kinfluence, iran, israel
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 10Jerusalem Post
Netanyahu's Levi Eshkol moment: Why Israel defied Trump - analysis
Netanyahu out by June 30?1.8%$34Kbenjamin, israel, june, minister, netanyahu
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?22.5%$158K2026, israel, israeli, june
Trump out as President by June 30?0.5%$106K2026, june, office, trump
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 9NYT World
Live Updates: Iran and Israel Move to De-Escalate After Cease-Fire Breaks Down
Netanyahu out by June 30?1.8%$34Kbenjamin, israel, minister, netanyahu, prime
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kcease, iran, israel, military
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 6BBC World
Stock market jitters remain amid tech fears and renewed Middle East attacks
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kiran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 28.5%$72Kiran, israel
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 220.5%$34Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 7Bluesky @washingtonpost
President Trump is used to cheers at his highly curated rallies and events. But on Monday night he’s
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?95.7%$154Kattend, finals, nba, president, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kpresident, trump
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?20.5%$270Kpresident, trump
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 8Bluesky @nytimes
The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen said on Monday that it would stop Israeli ships from operati
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?24.0%$157Kisrael, israeli, missiles, yemen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?1.7%$1.1Miran, war
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2.9%$287Kiran, israel
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 7TASS English
Pressure on opposition affects outcome of Armenian election — political bloc
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio0.1%$88Karmenia, armenian, election, political, strong
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nat0.1%$52Kalliance, armenia, armenian, election, political
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio99.7%$141Karmenia, armenian, election, political
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 5SCMP China
Leaks and backdoors: China warns of security risks in relay services for foreign AI models
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?69.0%$59Kauthority, foreign, national, security, services
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?1.2%$43Kauthority, foreign, national, security, services
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?6.5%$225Kchina, security
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 11Jerusalem Post
Iran fires over 20 ballistic missiles at Israel, as IDF warns renewed conflict could last for days
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?24.0%$157K2026, ballistic, fire, israel, launched
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?1.2%$151K2026, ballistic, fire, iran, launched
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?1.7%$1.1M2026, iran, war
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 12Jerusalem Post
Iran's military says attacks on Israel will cease if IDF does not strike southern Lebanon, Dahiyeh
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2.9%$287K2026, cease, ceasefire, iran, israel
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1M2026, april, cease, ceasefire, iran
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?16.5%$1.2M2026, april, cease, ceasefire, iran
📂 Show low-score alerts (score 3-4, mostly noise — 25 alerts)
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 3Wikipedia
Wikipedia edit: Joe Biden - /* Business activities */
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1.6%$39Kbiden
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Investigations, Orders, or Reviews: Acetone from the Republic of
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$45Kkorea, republic
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Administration's Action following a Determination of Import Injury with regard to Quartz Surface Pro
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1Mfollowing, states, united, written
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2Mfollowing, states, united, written
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?9.1%$304Kextended, following, states, united
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 3Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Temporary Exemption for Certain Over-the-Road Bus Owner/Operators that Provide Fixed-Route Service t
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1Mprovide, public, temporary
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2Mprovide, public, temporary
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kprovide, public, temporary
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 3Congress.gov
Most-Viewed Bills - Week of June 7, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1M2026, june, week
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2M2026, june, week
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?88.5%$143K2026, june, viewed
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 3Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah launches rockets at IDF posts after Lebanese media reports IDF strikes in nation's south
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?88.5%$143K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?10.5%$127K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?0.1%$126K2026, posts, toward
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 4Jerusalem Post
Saudi, Qatari mediation message signal ‘Iran still has pathways to avoid isolation’ - interview
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?100.0%$8.5M2024, iran
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?100.0%$1.8M2024, iran
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1%$1.3Miran, october
2026-06-08 14:58:58Score: 3Bloomberg Markets
Delta President on Plans for Middle East Investment
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?100.0%$8.5Mairlines, international, region
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?100.0%$1.8Mairlines, international, region
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?100.0%$1.0Mairlines, international, region
2026-06-08 14:34:20Score: 4Bluesky @nytimes
From @theathleticfc.bsky.social: 48 teams will start competing at the 2026 World Cup this week. Here
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?37.5%$67K2026, team, teams, tournament
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0.1%$62K2026, team, teams, tournament
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0.9%$56K2026, team, teams, tournament
2026-06-08 14:34:20Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Investigations, Orders, or Reviews: Acetone from the Republic of
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$44Kkorea, republic
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Administration's Action following a Determination of Import Injury with regard to Quartz Surface Pro
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.5%$3.1Mfollowing, states, united, written
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2Mfollowing, states, united, written
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kextended, following, states, united
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 3Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Temporary Exemption for Certain Over-the-Road Bus Owner/Operators that Provide Fixed-Route Service t
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.5%$3.1Mprovide, public, temporary
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2Mprovide, public, temporary
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.2%$289Kprovide, public, temporary
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 3Congress.gov
Most-Viewed Bills - Week of June 7, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.5%$3.1M2026, june, week
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?17.5%$1.2M2026, june, week
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?87.0%$128K2026, june, viewed
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 3Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah launches rockets at IDF posts after Lebanese media reports IDF strikes in nation's south
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?87.0%$128K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?13.5%$109K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?0.1%$104K2026, posts, toward
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 4Jerusalem Post
Saudi, Qatari mediation message signal ‘Iran still has pathways to avoid isolation’ - interview
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?100.0%$8.5M2024, iran
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?100.0%$1.8M2024, iran
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1%$1.3Miran, october
2026-06-08 14:34:19Score: 3BBC World
Friendship or leverage: Why is Xi Jinping in North Korea?
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$44Kkorea
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4Bluesky @nytimes
From @theathleticfc.bsky.social: 48 teams will start competing at the 2026 World Cup this week. Here
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?37.5%$67K2026, team, teams, tournament
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0.9%$63K2026, team, teams, tournament
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0.1%$62K2026, team, teams, tournament
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4Hacker News Top
Nvidia partners with LG robotics to build humanoid robots in South Korea
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea, south
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$44Kkorea
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Investigations, Orders, or Reviews: Acetone from the Republic of
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$44Kkorea, republic
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Administration's Action following a Determination of Import Injury with regard to Quartz Surface Pro
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1Mfollowing, states, united, written
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?16.5%$1.2Mfollowing, states, united, written
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?7.4%$301Kextended, following, states, united
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 3Fed Register Pre-Pub (Notice)
Temporary Exemption for Certain Over-the-Road Bus Owner/Operators that Provide Fixed-Route Service t
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1Mprovide, public, temporary
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?16.5%$1.2Mprovide, public, temporary
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2.9%$287Kprovide, public, temporary
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 3Congress.gov
Most-Viewed Bills - Week of June 7, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?4.5%$3.1M2026, june, week
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?16.5%$1.2M2026, june, week
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?87.5%$118K2026, june, viewed
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4Cointelegraph
South Korea police raid Bithumb over lawmaker hiring favoritism probe: report
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$1.2Mkorea, south
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?36.5%$44Kkorea
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 4The Block
Bitmine adds 127,000 ether, bringing treasury to 5.54 million ETH as Tom Lee calls crypto selloff ‘s
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 80.1%$60K000, eth
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?0.2%$34K000, eth
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?100.0%$117Keth
2026-06-08 14:10:17Score: 3Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah launches rockets at IDF posts after Lebanese media reports IDF strikes in nation's south
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?87.5%$118K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?12.5%$110K2026, posts, toward
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?0.1%$96K2026, posts, toward

Live Polymarket Markets (Top 40 by 24h Volume)

MarketYES24hVolume

Crypto Price Edge — Binance vs Polymarket

Binance prices update every second. Polymarket threshold markets ("Will Bitcoin hit $X?") reprice minutes later. When Binance crosses a threshold, you can bet before Polymarket adjusts.

Bitcoin (Binance Live)
$64,074.77
Compare this against the Polymarket thresholds below. If BTC just crossed one, the market may not have repriced yet.
Ethereum (Binance Live)
$1,699.44
Same principle — if ETH just broke through a threshold, check if Polymarket has caught up.

Bitcoin Threshold Markets on Polymarket

MarketYES Price24h Vol
No active BTC threshold markets found

Ethereum Threshold Markets on Polymarket

MarketYES Price24h Vol
No active ETH threshold markets found
How the crypto edge works: Polymarket has markets like "Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 in March?" If BTC on Binance is at $89,500 and climbing fast, the Polymarket YES price might still be at 30-40 cents. By the time it crosses $90K, you've already bought YES cheap. This is the fastest, most automatable edge — no news interpretation needed.

Forensic Research: News Timestamps vs Market Movements

Cross-referencing when major news events actually broke against when Polymarket prices moved. The gap is the edge window.

Event 1: US-Iran War Begins — February 28, 2026

Feb 27, 20:38 UTCTrump gives order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury--
Feb 28, 06:35 UTCCENTCOM announces airstrikes have begunNEW
Feb 28, 06:45 UTCIsraeli Air Force strikes — Khamenei killedNEW
Mar 1$529M+ bet on Iran markets — Polymarket record dayRECORD
Market-creation event. Multiple new markets launched. Ceasefire started at 61% chance — now 1.5%. Early NO buyers made massive returns.

Event 2: Trump-Xi China Visit Postponement

Mar 16, ~14:00 UTCCNBC: Trump says delay "a month or so"88.5%
Mar 16, ~15:00 UTCWashington Post confirms postponement~85%
Mar 18, 00:00 UTCPolymarket finally crashes — 24-36hrs later45.5%
Mar 25, ~17:00 UTCWhite House confirms May 14-15 dates34.5%
Mar 25, 18:00 UTCPolymarket crashes — ~1hr this time2.6%
Key finding: Stage 1 had a 24-36 hour window. The President said on camera "we asked to delay" and Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for a full day. Stage 2 was faster (~1hr) but still tradeable. The market got more efficient the second time — but still not instant.

Event 3: Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Israel

Feb 28 - Mar 5Iran fires 500+ missiles and 2000+ drones--
Mar 1Beit Shemesh strike — 9 Israeli civilians killed--
Mar 10+Iranian attacks drop 90% — suppression working--
Mar 21Iran strikes near Dimona nuclear site — 180+ wounded--
"Regime fall" market was at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Smart money selling NO early would have profited steadily as it dropped to 0.7%.

Event 4: Ceasefire Market — Steady Decline

Mar 3Market launches at 52.5%52.5%
Mar 5Drops to 25.5% as war intensifies25.5%
Mar 8Settles around 24.5%24.5%
Mar 25Still no talks — drops further19.5%
Mar 292 days left, no ceasefire1.5%
Time decay edge: Active war, daily bombings, no diplomatic channel. This market was never going to resolve YES. Anyone who bought NO at any point profited. The closer the deadline, the more certain the return.

How to Trade on Polymarket (Buy Low, Sell High)

Polymarket is not just a betting platform — it's a full exchange. You can buy shares, sell them before the market resolves, and pocket the difference. Like trading stocks.

How a Trade Works

1. You spot an edge: "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" at 24.5%
2. Buy 132 NO shares at $0.755 each = $100 invested
3. Over 3 weeks, price drops to 1.5% (NO shares now worth $0.985)
4. You sell 132 NO shares at $0.985 = $130
5. Fee: 2% of $30 profit = $0.60
6. Net profit: $29.40 (29.4% return in 3 weeks)

Fees

FeeAmountNotes
Trading fee2% on profit onlyIf you lose money, you pay zero
Deposit (crypto)FreeSend USDC to your Polygon wallet
Deposit (card)~3-5%MoonPay credit/debit
Withdrawal~$0.01Polygon gas — negligible

Order Types

TypeHowWhen
Limit OrderSet your price, wait for fillDefault — avoids paying the spread
Market OrderBuy/sell immediately at best priceWhen speed matters (breaking news)

Liquidity & Spreads

Market TypeSpreadSlippage on $1KCan You Exit Fast?
Top markets (Iran, elections)1-2 cents<0.5%Yes, easily
Active ($50K+ vol)2-5 cents1-2%Yes
Medium5-10 cents2-5%Maybe
Low-liquidity10-25+ cents5-15%+Risk of being stuck
Rule: Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Check order book depth before entering. Use limit orders unless racing a breaking-news edge.

UK Access

UK users can access Polymarket. No IP block. Not regulated by FCA or Gambling Commission. Profits likely treated as gambling winnings (tax-free in UK). Regulatory grey area — could change. Worth checking with a tax advisor if trading professionally.

Technical Setup

ChainPolygon (PoS) — fast, cheap
CurrencyUSDC (stablecoin, pegged to $1)
WalletCreated automatically — email login or MetaMask/WalletConnect
KYCNot required under $10K withdrawals
API TradingFully allowed — py-clob-client (Python), REST API, WebSocket

My Positions — Live P&L and Sell Signals

Track your trades. Add a position when you buy, and the system will track the current price, your P&L, and tell you when to sell.

Sell Signal Rules:
TAKE PROFIT — Price moved 15%+ in your favour. Consider selling.
HOLD — Position is profitable but hasn't hit target yet.
STOP LOSS — Price moved 10%+ against you. Consider cutting losses.
TIME DECAY — Market deadline within 3 days and position is profitable. Sell before resolution risk.
Real positions unavailable: unsupported format string passed to NoneType.__format__
📄 Show legacy paper positions (82 open, 1577 closed)
$-27.05
Open P&L
82
Open Positions
1577
Closed Trades
$+1181.72
Realised P&L

Open Positions

MarketSideEntryNowP&LSignalOpened
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Electio NO 98.9c 98.9c $-0.16 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Electi NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election i NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Electio NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.0c 99.0c $-0.06 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential elect NO 99.1c 99.1c $-0.95 (-0.9%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential elect NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential el NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidenti NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential el NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential ele NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian president NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian preside NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential el NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.6c 99.6c $-0.45 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 20 NO 53.5c 53.5c $-0.49 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cincinnati Bengals next? NO 94.7c 94.7c $-0.62 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? NO 96.0c 96.0c $-0.11 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? NO 96.2c 96.2c $-0.86 (-0.9%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next? NO 96.8c 96.8c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next? NO 96.9c 96.9c $-0.24 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next? NO 96.9c 96.9c $-0.24 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? NO 97.0c 97.0c $-0.04 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next? NO 97.5c 97.5c $-0.60 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Atlanta Falcons next? NO 97.5c 97.5c $-0.50 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next? NO 98.0c 98.0c $-0.09 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next? NO 98.5c 98.5c $-0.52 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? NO 98.8c 98.8c $-0.26 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? NO 99.6c 99.6c $-0.45 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New Orleans Saints next? NO 99.6c 99.6c $-0.45 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Miami Dolphins next? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.20 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.20 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.20 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cleveland Browns next? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Denver Broncos next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Giants next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Chargers next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Buffalo Bills next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New England Patriots next? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7 NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7 NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-06-07? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-06-07
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? YES 24.0c 24.0c $-0.16 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-06-08

Closed Trades (last 10)

MarketSideEntryExitP&LClosed
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?NO26.0c21.0c$-28.80 (-19.2%)2026-06-08
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?YES28.5c41.0c$+43.75 (+43.8%)2026-06-08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? [earlierNO68.0c34.0c$-0.68 (-48.5%)2026-06-08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? [later]YES8.1c92.0c$+1035.33 (+1035.3%)2026-06-08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by NO57.0c42.0c$-0.30 (-24.9%)2026-06-07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by YES8.9c11.0c$+23.58 (+23.6%)2026-06-07
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7?YES13.0c5.5c$-0.98 (-57.7%)2026-06-07
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?NO31.0c71.0c$+1.60 (+120.7%)2026-06-07
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?NO28.5c31.5c$+15.78 (+10.5%)2026-06-07
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07?NO47.0c90.6c$+92.43 (+92.4%)2026-06-07

Add New Position (Paper Trade)





How PolyEdge Works — The Complete Picture

Step 1: The Scanner Finds an Edge

Every 15 minutes, PolyEdge pulls 200 active Polymarket markets and checks them against breaking news from 10 RSS feeds and 12 Bluesky accounts. When a headline matches a market, it scores the match and logs an alert. Score 5+ triggers an email to you.

Step 2: You Decide — Is This Real?

Not every alert is an edge. You check:

1. Is the news genuinely new? Not a rehash of yesterday's story.
2. Should it move the market? "Trump delays China visit" should move "Visit by April 30?" but not "Fed rate decision".
3. Has the market already moved? Check the current price on the Markets tab. If it's already crashed, you're too late.
4. Is there enough liquidity? Check the 24h volume. Over $100K = safe. Under $10K = avoid.

Step 3: You Buy

When the event is MORE likely

Buy YES shares.

Example: "Trump to visit China by May 31?" — White House confirms May 14-15 dates.
YES price is at 47 cents. Buy YES. Price should go up.

When the event is LESS likely

Buy NO shares.

Example: "Ceasefire by March 31?" — active bombing, no talks, 5 days left.
NO price is at 75 cents. Buy NO. Price should go up (YES goes down).

Step 4: You Watch — The Sell Signals

Once you've bought, the Positions tab tracks your trade live. Here's when to sell:

TAKE PROFIT
Price has moved 15%+ in your favour. The market has repriced. Sell now and bank the profit. Don't get greedy — the edge was the mispricing, not predicting the future.
TIME DECAY
Market deadline is within 3 days and you're profitable. Sell before resolution. Don't risk a surprise last-minute event. Take the sure money.
STOP LOSS
Price moved 10%+ against you. You were wrong, or new info changed the picture. Cut your losses. Sell at 90% of what you paid, not zero.
HOLD
Position is profitable but hasn't hit target. News is still playing out. Wait. Check again in an hour.

Step 5: You Sell

Go to Polymarket. Place a sell order (limit order at your target price, or market order for instant fill). USDC goes back to your wallet. Mark the position as closed on the Positions tab.

Total time in trade: typically 1 hour to 2 days.
Target return: 15-50% per trade on the stake.
Fee: 2% of profit only. If you lose, you pay nothing.

The Golden Rules

1. Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Otherwise you can't sell quickly.
2. Use limit orders. Market orders pay the spread. Limit orders don't.
3. Don't bet on the outcome. Bet on the price movement. Get in, get out.
4. Start with paper trades. Log positions here first. See if your instincts are right before risking real money.
5. Time decay is the safest edge. Markets near deadlines with obvious outcomes. Lowest risk.
6. Set a stop loss. If the price moves 10% against you, sell. Don't hold and hope.

System Architecture & Data Sources

PolyEdge runs entirely on free APIs. No paid tiers. No Claude API costs. Scans every 15 minutes via launchd.

Data Sources (All Free)

SourceWhatSpeedCost
Polymarket Gamma APIMarket metadata, prices, volumesREST pollFree
Polymarket CLOB APIPrice history, order bookREST pollFree
Polymarket WebSocketReal-time price changes<1sFree
Binance WebSocketBTC/ETH live prices<1sFree
RSS (10 feeds)Reuters, AP, BBC, Politico, CoinDesk, Al Jazeera, NPR30-45sFree
Bluesky Jetstream (12 accounts)AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WashPo, Guardian, Bloomberg, CNBC, Axios, Politico, CoinDesk<1sFree

How Matching Works

When a headline arrives, we extract keywords and match against all 200 active Polymarket markets. Entity keywords (trump, iran, bitcoin, ceasefire, election, etc.) get a 3x score boost. Alerts score 3+ are logged, score 5+ trigger an email.

Zero AI/Claude costs — pure keyword matching. No Claude API calls anywhere in the pipeline.

Files & Commands

~/polyedge/polyedge.pyMain CLI tool
~/polyedge/dashboard.pyThis dashboard
~/polyedge/data/edge_alerts.jsonlAlert log (append-only)
com.polyedge.scanLaunchd — scans every 15 mins + email
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan         # Quick scan now
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan --age 240 # Last 4 hours
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py watch --timeout 15 # Live stream 15 min
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py forensics iran  # Market forensics
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py log           # View alert log
python3 ~/polyedge/dashboard.py              # This dashboard

Phase Plan

Phase 1 (now): Paper trading. Scanner running, logging alerts, building data on edge windows. Understanding which markets and news sources give the best signals.
Phase 2: Small stakes ($50-100) on high-conviction edges. Focus on time-decay markets near deadlines and breaking-news edges where the window is 1+ hours.
Phase 3: API automation. Auto-detect crypto threshold crossings via Binance. Auto-place on time-decay markets approaching deadlines. Kelly Criterion stake sizing.

Original Research Files

polyedge-plan.docxFull system plan — Phase 1/2/3, architecture, cost control
polymarket-github-ecosystem.mdAPI/SDK research — all Polymarket repos, endpoints, tools
TimeGMT-Polymarket--Betfair--MARGIN.csvYastremska vs Pegula — 28% gap between Polymarket and Betfair
odds-Mira-Vs-Linda.csv2,428 data points — Polymarket lagged Betfair 40% of the time
PolyEdge Intelligence System | All data from free APIs | Total cost: $0.00