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$99.57
Wallet pUSD
2
Open Positions
0
BUYs Today
4
Closes Today
$+1.28
Realised Today
$-2.52
Unrealised
$-1.24
Day Total

Last CLOSE: 2026-05-13T13:16:22 · SL_FIRE · microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026

💵 Real Money Positions (Polymarket on-chain)

Live truth from Polymarket data-api · Wallet: $99.57 pUSD · Updated every 60s

$-2.52
Real Unrealised
2
Real Open
$2.52
Real Cost
$0.00
Real Value
MarketSideSharesCostValuePnL%Note
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? (highest-temperature-in-hong-ko)No7.88sh$1.26$0.00-100.0%🪦 settled $0
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? (will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-may-4-)Yes7.88sh$1.26$0.00-100.0%🪦 settled $0

📜 Today's Real Fires Timeline (2026-05-13)

Time UTCKindPlaySide / ReasonSlugPricePnL
13:16:22CLOSENEWS_FADE_LATESL_FIREmicrostrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026$0.694$+1.12
13:09:16CLOSENEWS_FADE_LATESL_FIREwill-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-$0.205$-0.12
13:09:07CLOSENEWS_FADE_LATETP_FIREwill-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-k$0.385$+0.38
13:08:14CLOSENEWS_FADE_LATESL_FIREwill-mette-frederiksen-be-the-next-prime-minister-$0.280$-0.11

🎯 Per-Play Today

🟢 = armed for real money · ⚫ = paper-only / fired today via legacy code

PlayBUYs TodayCloses TodayRealised PnL
🟢 CRYPTO00$+0.00
🟢 NEG_RISK00$+0.00
🟢 NEWS_FADE_LATE04$+1.28
🟢 TEMPORAL_ARB00$+0.00

🤖 Bot Health

TRADING_MODE: real · HALT: 🟢 OFF (live)
REAL_TRADING_PLAYS: CRYPTO, TEMPORAL_ARB, NEWS_FADE_LATE, NEG_RISK
Caps: stake $1.3 · max open $65.0 · max BUYs/day 10
Proxy: ✅ proxy=JP ip=126.118.196.110 polymarket=ok (2026-05-13T18:11:48)
📊 Show market scanner stats (alerts/markets counters)
200
Today's Alerts
200
Total Alerts
90
High Score (5+)
0
Active Markets
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📚 Show educational content (March 2026 case studies, How It Works, Forensics)

The Edge Is Real — Proven Examples This Month

These are real price movements from March 2026. Each one shows: what happened, how long you had to act, and what a $100 bet would have returned. Every example uses actual Polymarket CLOB data.

Mar 16 — CNBC reports: Trump asks China to delay Xi meeting "a month or so" due to Iran war. Polymarket: "Visit by Apr 30?" still at 88.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 45.5%, then to 2.6%
24-36 hrs
Window
+$746
Profit / $100
88.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 869 NO shares at $0.115 ($100). Trump literally said on camera it's delayed. Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for 24+ hours. NO shares now worth $0.974 = $846. Profit: $746.
YOUR WINDOWBUYSELL82%2%
Mar 25 — White House briefing: Karoline Leavitt confirms Trump-Xi rescheduled to May 14-15. "Visit by April 30?" trading at 34.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 2.6% within hours
~1 hr
Window
+$186
Profit / $100
34.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 152 NO shares at $0.655 ($100). May dates confirmed = "by April 30" is dead. NO shares now $0.974 = $148. Profit: $186 total including resolution.
YOUR WINDOWBUYSELL82%2%
Mar 8-29 — Time decay: Iran war ongoing, daily bombings, no ceasefire talks. "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" was 24.5% with 23 days of active war.
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? — steadily dropped to 1.5%
Days-weeks
Window
+$30
Profit / $100
24.5%
Entry Price
1.5%
Price Now
The trade: Buy NO at $0.755. Active bombing campaign, no diplomatic channel — ceasefire by month end was clearly unrealistic. Safest edge type: time decay. The closer the deadline, the more certain the profit.
BUYSELL52%0%
Mar 25 — Same news, opposite market: May 14-15 dates confirmed. "Visit by May 31?" jumped from 47.5% to 76%.
Will Trump visit China by May 31? — rose to 76%
~2 hrs
Window
+$60
Profit / $100
47.5%
Entry Price
76.0%
Price Now
The trade: Buy YES at $0.475. May 14-15 confirmed = "by May 31" very likely YES. Same news event, opposite side of a different market. $60 profit so far, likely $110+ at resolution.
BUYSELL90%76%

Three Types of Edge — All Confirmed

1. Breaking News (minutes to hours)
News breaks on Reuters/AP/Bluesky. Polymarket hasn't repriced. You bet in the gap. Trump/China had a 24-36 hour window. Most events: 1-4 hours.
2. Mispricing (days)
Markets stay wrong for days. "Regime fall" at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Ceasefire at 24.5% during active bombing. Obvious to anyone watching the news.
3. Time Decay (predictable)
Markets with hard deadlines converge to 0% or 100%. If the event clearly isn't happening, sell YES. Lowest risk, most reliable. The ceasefire market dropped steadily for 3 weeks.

Where the Edge Is Biggest (Non-Sports Categories)

CategoryVolumeEdge TypeWindowWhy
Geopolitics / Iran$324MBreaking newsHoursWars, strikes, diplomacy — wire services break first
US Politics / 2028$1.9BNews + mispricingHours-daysPolls, endorsements, candidate drops — huge volume but slow
Crypto (BTC/ETH)$119MBinance leadSeconds-minsBinance price moves first. Polymarket thresholds lag behind
Crude Oil$72MExchange leadMinutesIran war = oil spikes. NYMEX leads, Polymarket follows
Fed / Interest Rates$43MBreaking newsMins-hoursFOMC decisions, Fed speeches — wire services break first
World Elections$95MNews lagHours-daysLocal polls/coalition news breaks before English markets
Eurovision$49MBookmaker leadHoursRehearsal odds shift on traditional bookies first
Elon Musk Tweets$21MData leadReal-timeLiterally counting tweets — scraping X gives you the answer

Edge Alerts (200 total, 200 today)

Scanner checks 200 markets against 10 RSS feeds + 12 Bluesky accounts every 15 minutes. High-score alerts (5+) are emailed to adam@muswellrose.com.

2026-05-13 18:06:05Score: 5Bluesky @washingtonpost
The Senate was poised to confirm Kevin Warsh as the central bank’s next chair, handing President Tru
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?100.0%$277Kchair, confirm, kevin, senate, warsh
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Cha0.1%$146Kchair, confirm, kevin, senate, warsh
Trump out as President by May 31?0.7%$86Kpresident, trump, vote
2026-05-13 18:06:05Score: 7Bluesky @washingtonpost
The Senate rejected a Democratic-led measure to halt the war in Iran, a sign of durable Republican s
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, military, war
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$94Kiran, military, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?4.5%$88Kiran, military, war
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 8Reddit r/stocks
Wall Street pumps while Bitcoin slips.
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Kanother, jinping, summit, trump
Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?0.4%$59Kjinping, summit, trump
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?10.5%$49Kjinping, summit, trump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 6Reddit r/stocks
$SPCE!? Most interesting stock before SpaceX IPO?
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?21.5%$91K2026, business, down, due, per
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?98.7%$90K2026, down, due, stock, trades
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?51.5%$172K2026, business, due, per
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5Reddit r/neoliberal
In a bind over rare earths, Europe watches US-China tussle from the sidelines
Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?0.4%$59Kchina, chinese, officials
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Kchina, chinese
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?10.5%$49Kchina, chinese
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 6Reddit r/politics
Senate defeats 7th attempt to limit Trump's Iran war powers, despite new GOP defection
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, war
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kiran, trump
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?2.6%$117Kiran, trump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 6Reddit r/politics
Republican resistance to Iran war grows in the Senate as Murkowski flips
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, war
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$94Kiran, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?4.5%$88Kiran, war
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 6Reddit r/politics
Trump Cries 'Virtual Treason' as US News Outlets Detail Iran War Intel Assessments
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, war
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kiran, trump
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?2.6%$117Kiran, trump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5TASS English
Lavrov confident trade turnover between Russia, India will reach $100 bln by 2030
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?2.2%$76Kaccording, russia, russian
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?2.1%$63Kaccording, russia, russian
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian p60.5%$58Kaccording, russia, russian
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5TASS English
Trade turnover between Russia, Indonesia has doubled — trade envoy
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?11.6%$53Krepresentative, russia, trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?35.0%$39Krepresentative, russia, trade
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?2.2%$76Kaccording, russia
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 6TASS English
US allows 15 humanitarian ships to sail in first month of Iran’s naval blockade — CENTCOM
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kblockade, iran, military, naval
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the23.0%$55Kblockade, iran, military, naval
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the51.0%$43Kblockade, iran, military, naval
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5Jerusalem Post
Dominican Republic designates Iran’s IRGC, Hezbollah as terrorist organizations
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, irgc, republic
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?4.5%$88Kiran, irgc, republic
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kiran, president
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 7Jerusalem Post
Saudi airstrikes targeted militias in Iraq during war with Iran
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$94Kairstrikes, iran, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$262Kiran, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?4.5%$88Kiran, war
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 8Jerusalem Post
WATCH: Israel hits Hezbollah terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?1.1%$140K2026, israel, israeli, lebanon
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$94K2026, israel, israeli
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?5.5%$228K2026, israel
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5NYT Politics
U.S. and Mexican Officials Deny C.I.A. Had Lethal Role in Mexico Operation
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$94Kassassination, inside, operation
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 5BBC Politics
From tourist tax to digital ID: BBC correspondents on the key bills in the King's Speech
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?3.5%$1.2Mgovernment, keir, starmer
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?25.5%$191Kgovernment, keir, starmer
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?47.5%$189Kgovernment, keir, starmer
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 5Wikipedia
Wikipedia edit: Donald Trump - /* Religion */ Manual revert. Trump photo-op at St. John's is mention
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kdonald, posted, trump
Trump out as President by May 31?0.7%$87Kdonald, section, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kdonald, trump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 5Reddit r/stocks
The "Beijing Miracle" is Pure Copium
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Khormuz, strait, trump
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?7.0%$623Khormuz, ships, strait, transit
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?0.2%$612Khormuz, ships, strait, transit
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 8Reddit r/stocks
Wall Street pumps while Bitcoin slips.
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kanother, jinping, summit, trump
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?1.4%$5.8Mbitcoin, btc
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?100.0%$578Kbitcoin, btc
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 6Reddit r/geopolitics
China Warns US Over ‘Four Red Lines’ Ahead Trump-Xi Meeting
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kchina, trump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 7Reddit r/worldnews
Zelenskyy States Russia’s 800-Drone Barrage Was No Coincidence During Trump China Visit
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kchina, trump, visit
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Kdrone, states, trump
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kstates, trump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 6Reddit r/politics
As evidence contradicts the White House’s line on Iran, Trump targets free press
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kiran, trump
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?2.6%$118Kiran, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kevidence, trump
2026-05-13 17:30:16Score: 5Times of Israel
Lufthansa group and Wizz Air to resume Tel Aviv flights after three-month war hiatus
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$123Kjuly, june, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?4.5%$88Kjune, war
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?1.4%$258Kwar
📂 Show low-score alerts (score 3-4, mostly noise — 37 alerts)
2026-05-13 18:06:05Score: 3Reddit r/bitcoin
Bitcoin Optech Newsletter #404 Recap Podcast
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?1.4%$5.8Mbitcoin
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?100.0%$574Kbitcoin
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?0.1%$467Kbitcoin
2026-05-13 18:06:05Score: 4Reddit r/investing
Early tax payment for sale of one stock?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2020.9%$344Kjune, rate
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2021.2%$240Kjune, rate
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 202697.7%$138Kjune, rate
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/investing
Is SMCI (Super Micro Computing) the next INTC (Intel)?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?21.5%$100K120, per, similar
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?21.5%$91Kdown, per, similar
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?98.7%$90Kdown, similar, stock
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 4Reddit r/economy
The Interest Expense on US Public Debt hit $1.27 trillion over the last 12 months, another record hi
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2020.9%$344Kfederal, increase, interest, soon
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2021.2%$240Kfederal, increase, interest, soon
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 202697.7%$138Kfederal, increase, interest, soon
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/worldnews
Russian cargo ship sunk off Spain carried nuclear reactors for North Korea, probe reveals
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$356Kkorea
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/worldnews
Russian parliament passes bill allowing Putin to invade foreign countries
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?2.2%$140Kputin
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 4Reddit r/worldnews
Iran demands Pride flags be banned from World Cup stadiums
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1%$213Kcup, iran
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?0.9%$718Kiran
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?13.5%$703Kiran
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 4Reddit r/politics
Trump Bluntly Maps Out New Country He Wants as 51st U.S. State
US strike on Cuba by December 31?37.0%$187Kcountry, trump
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?0.1%$56Kcountry, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Trump Admin. Has Up to 120,000 Pages of Documents on Ghislaine Maxwell’s Prison Transfer
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$398Ktrump
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5%$255Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Trump Economic Approval Rating Just Hit a Historic New Low
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$398Ktrump
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5%$255Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Trump leaves GOP candidates to 'eat each other alive' as Dems seize advantage to rally
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$398Ktrump
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5%$255Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Trump’s Appalling Racial Legacy
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$398Ktrump
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5%$255Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 4Reddit r/politics
The moment that confirmed Trump had betrayed Maga
US strike on Cuba by December 31?37.0%$187Kconfirmed, trump
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?99.9%$39Kconfirmed, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.9%$854Ktrump
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3TASS English
Putin appoints Kovalchuk, Shuvayev acting governors of Bryansk, Belgorod Regions
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?2.2%$140Kputin
2026-05-13 18:06:04Score: 3Bloomberg Markets
Intertek Inclined to Recommend EQT’s Final £9.2B Offer
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.543.5%$428Kcrystal, final, source
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21?10.5%$234Kcrystal, final, source
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)28.5%$49Kcrystal, final, source
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Wikipedia
Wikipedia edit: Donald Trump - Undid revision [[Special:Diff/1353896727|1353896727]] by [[Special:Co
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kdonald, trump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Kdonald, trump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Kdonald, trump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Bluesky @nytimes
A bipartisan effort to force a vote on legislation sending fresh U.S. security aid to Ukraine has am
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?2.2%$76Kcontrol, ukraine
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?1.1%$285Kukraine
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?10.5%$73Kukraine
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Bluesky @nytimes
From @theathletic.com: The handshake is one of tennis' fundamental traditions. It is, on one level,
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov98.2%$1.1Mbeyond, match, tennis
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B100.0%$788Kanother, beyond, match
Parma: Alycia Parks vs Susan Bandecchi0.1%$442Kbeyond, match, tennis
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/ethereum
Every time I try to move money between my bank and crypto I feel like a criminal even though I've do
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13?0.1%$150Keth
Ethereum Up or Down on May 13?0.1%$98Keth
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13?0.1%$78Keth
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/cryptocurrency
Has anyone here actually worked with Lionsgate Intelligence Network after getting scammed?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Kintelligence, reporting, second
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/investing
Early tax payment for sale of one stock?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2020.9%$345Kjune, rate
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2021.2%$242Kjune, rate
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 202697.7%$137Kjune, rate
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/stocks
Anduril raises $5 Billion Series at $61 Billion valuation
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the1.6%$140Kannounced, officially, written
Counter-Strike: Crashers vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South Americ42.5%$87Kanother, round, series
Will GameStop acquire eBay?15.5%$76Kannounced, company, officially
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/economy
From the GasPrices community on Reddit: Donald Trump has single-handedly ruined the U.S. economy
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kdonald, trump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Kdonald, trump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Kdonald, trump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/neoliberal
In a bind over rare earths, Europe watches US-China tussle from the sidelines
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Kchina, chinese
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?7.4%$335Kchina
Xi Jinping out by June 30?1.6%$103Kchina
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/worldnews
Australia’s Trump Tower plans scrapped as developer says brand has become ‘toxic’
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/worldnews
Hamas Forced Captives From Israel To Have Sex With Family Members: Report
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?8.0%$123Khamas, israel
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?5.5%$231Kisrael
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?5.0%$209Kisrael
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/worldnews
Russian cargo ship sunk off Spain carried nuclear reactors for North Korea, probe reveals
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4%$356Kkorea
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/politics
House Backers Reach Threshold to Force Vote on $1.3 Billion in Ukraine Aid
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?1.1%$285Kukraine
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?2.2%$76Kukraine
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?10.5%$73Kukraine
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/politics
Trump wants to buy youth vote with flavored vapes. FDA Commissioner wants healthy young Americans. G
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump, wins
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.5%$254Ktrump, wins
Trump out as President by May 31?0.7%$87Ktrump, vote
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Democratic lawmakers demand Trump explain—and reverse—termination of NSF’s governing board
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Assassination conspiracy theories? Blame Trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/politics
Trump Taps Don Jr.'s 38-Year-Old Turkey-Hunting Pal to Lead FDA
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 3Reddit r/politics
The Trump Counterterrorism Strategy Is a Dangerous Joke
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:17Score: 4Reddit r/politics
Trump sees US suffer biggest inflation jump since Biden was in office
Trump out as President by May 31?0.7%$87Koffice, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:16Score: 4Reddit r/politics
Trump Bluntly Maps Out New Country He Wants as 51st U.S. State
US strike on Cuba by December 31?36.5%$449Kcountry, trump
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?0.8%$843Ktrump
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5%$399Ktrump
2026-05-13 17:30:16Score: 3TASS English
Bundestag MP Kotre tells TASS he plans to attend SPIEF
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?6.5%$155Kany, official, plans
2026-05-13 17:30:16Score: 4TASS English
Russian, Indian foreign ministers discuss strategic partnership in New Delhi
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?2.2%$76Krussia, russian
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?2.4%$137Krussia
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?10.5%$73Krussia

Live Polymarket Markets (Top 40 by 24h Volume)

MarketYES24hVolume

Crypto Price Edge — Binance vs Polymarket

Binance prices update every second. Polymarket threshold markets ("Will Bitcoin hit $X?") reprice minutes later. When Binance crosses a threshold, you can bet before Polymarket adjusts.

Bitcoin (Binance Live)
$79,606.29
Compare this against the Polymarket thresholds below. If BTC just crossed one, the market may not have repriced yet.
Ethereum (Binance Live)
$2,262.91
Same principle — if ETH just broke through a threshold, check if Polymarket has caught up.

Bitcoin Threshold Markets on Polymarket

MarketYES Price24h Vol
No active BTC threshold markets found

Ethereum Threshold Markets on Polymarket

MarketYES Price24h Vol
No active ETH threshold markets found
How the crypto edge works: Polymarket has markets like "Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 in March?" If BTC on Binance is at $89,500 and climbing fast, the Polymarket YES price might still be at 30-40 cents. By the time it crosses $90K, you've already bought YES cheap. This is the fastest, most automatable edge — no news interpretation needed.

Forensic Research: News Timestamps vs Market Movements

Cross-referencing when major news events actually broke against when Polymarket prices moved. The gap is the edge window.

Event 1: US-Iran War Begins — February 28, 2026

Feb 27, 20:38 UTCTrump gives order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury--
Feb 28, 06:35 UTCCENTCOM announces airstrikes have begunNEW
Feb 28, 06:45 UTCIsraeli Air Force strikes — Khamenei killedNEW
Mar 1$529M+ bet on Iran markets — Polymarket record dayRECORD
Market-creation event. Multiple new markets launched. Ceasefire started at 61% chance — now 1.5%. Early NO buyers made massive returns.

Event 2: Trump-Xi China Visit Postponement

Mar 16, ~14:00 UTCCNBC: Trump says delay "a month or so"88.5%
Mar 16, ~15:00 UTCWashington Post confirms postponement~85%
Mar 18, 00:00 UTCPolymarket finally crashes — 24-36hrs later45.5%
Mar 25, ~17:00 UTCWhite House confirms May 14-15 dates34.5%
Mar 25, 18:00 UTCPolymarket crashes — ~1hr this time2.6%
Key finding: Stage 1 had a 24-36 hour window. The President said on camera "we asked to delay" and Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for a full day. Stage 2 was faster (~1hr) but still tradeable. The market got more efficient the second time — but still not instant.

Event 3: Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Israel

Feb 28 - Mar 5Iran fires 500+ missiles and 2000+ drones--
Mar 1Beit Shemesh strike — 9 Israeli civilians killed--
Mar 10+Iranian attacks drop 90% — suppression working--
Mar 21Iran strikes near Dimona nuclear site — 180+ wounded--
"Regime fall" market was at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Smart money selling NO early would have profited steadily as it dropped to 0.7%.

Event 4: Ceasefire Market — Steady Decline

Mar 3Market launches at 52.5%52.5%
Mar 5Drops to 25.5% as war intensifies25.5%
Mar 8Settles around 24.5%24.5%
Mar 25Still no talks — drops further19.5%
Mar 292 days left, no ceasefire1.5%
Time decay edge: Active war, daily bombings, no diplomatic channel. This market was never going to resolve YES. Anyone who bought NO at any point profited. The closer the deadline, the more certain the return.

How to Trade on Polymarket (Buy Low, Sell High)

Polymarket is not just a betting platform — it's a full exchange. You can buy shares, sell them before the market resolves, and pocket the difference. Like trading stocks.

How a Trade Works

1. You spot an edge: "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" at 24.5%
2. Buy 132 NO shares at $0.755 each = $100 invested
3. Over 3 weeks, price drops to 1.5% (NO shares now worth $0.985)
4. You sell 132 NO shares at $0.985 = $130
5. Fee: 2% of $30 profit = $0.60
6. Net profit: $29.40 (29.4% return in 3 weeks)

Fees

FeeAmountNotes
Trading fee2% on profit onlyIf you lose money, you pay zero
Deposit (crypto)FreeSend USDC to your Polygon wallet
Deposit (card)~3-5%MoonPay credit/debit
Withdrawal~$0.01Polygon gas — negligible

Order Types

TypeHowWhen
Limit OrderSet your price, wait for fillDefault — avoids paying the spread
Market OrderBuy/sell immediately at best priceWhen speed matters (breaking news)

Liquidity & Spreads

Market TypeSpreadSlippage on $1KCan You Exit Fast?
Top markets (Iran, elections)1-2 cents<0.5%Yes, easily
Active ($50K+ vol)2-5 cents1-2%Yes
Medium5-10 cents2-5%Maybe
Low-liquidity10-25+ cents5-15%+Risk of being stuck
Rule: Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Check order book depth before entering. Use limit orders unless racing a breaking-news edge.

UK Access

UK users can access Polymarket. No IP block. Not regulated by FCA or Gambling Commission. Profits likely treated as gambling winnings (tax-free in UK). Regulatory grey area — could change. Worth checking with a tax advisor if trading professionally.

Technical Setup

ChainPolygon (PoS) — fast, cheap
CurrencyUSDC (stablecoin, pegged to $1)
WalletCreated automatically — email login or MetaMask/WalletConnect
KYCNot required under $10K withdrawals
API TradingFully allowed — py-clob-client (Python), REST API, WebSocket

My Positions — Live P&L and Sell Signals

Track your trades. Add a position when you buy, and the system will track the current price, your P&L, and tell you when to sell.

Sell Signal Rules:
TAKE PROFIT — Price moved 15%+ in your favour. Consider selling.
HOLD — Position is profitable but hasn't hit target yet.
STOP LOSS — Price moved 10%+ against you. Consider cutting losses.
TIME DECAY — Market deadline within 3 days and position is profitable. Sell before resolution risk.

💵 Real Money Positions (Polymarket on-chain)

Live truth from Polymarket data-api · Wallet: $99.57 pUSD · Updated every 60s

$-2.52
Real Unrealised
2
Real Open
$2.52
Real Cost
$0.00
Real Value
MarketSideSharesCostValuePnL%Note
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? (highest-temperature-in-hong-ko)No7.88sh$1.26$0.00-100.0%🪦 settled $0
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? (will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-may-4-)Yes7.88sh$1.26$0.00-100.0%🪦 settled $0
📄 Show legacy paper positions (106 open, 1489 closed)
$-32.55
Open P&L
106
Open Positions
1489
Closed Trades
$+1326.92
Realised P&L

Open Positions

MarketSideEntryNowP&LSignalOpened
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 98.9c 98.9c $-0.16 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15 NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Electio NO 98.9c 98.9c $-0.16 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Electi NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election i NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Electio NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? NO 72.5c 72.5c $-0.67 (-0.7%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? NO 97.0c 97.0c $-0.14 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? NO 98.8c 98.8c $-0.26 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.0c 99.0c $-0.06 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026? NO 98.7c 98.7c $-0.36 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.30 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 24, 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.20 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.20 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 26, 2026? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 30, 2026? NO 100.0c 100.0c $-0.05 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential NO 81.5c 81.5c $-0.57 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential ele NO 94.5c 94.5c $-0.78 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential NO 96.8c 96.8c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential elect NO 97.9c 97.9c $-0.19 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential elect NO 99.1c 99.1c $-0.95 (-0.9%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential elect NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.2c 99.2c $-0.75 (-0.8%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential el NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidenti NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential el NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.4c 99.4c $-0.65 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential el NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential ele NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential e NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential NO 99.5c 99.5c $-0.55 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential NO 98.6c 98.6c $-0.46 (-0.5%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian president NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian preside NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential el NO 99.9c 99.9c $-0.15 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 70.5c 70.5c $-0.59 (-0.6%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.6c 99.6c $-0.45 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.7c 99.7c $-0.35 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? NO 99.8c 99.8c $-0.25 (-0.2%) FLAT 2026-05-08
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YES 16.1c 16.1c $-0.01 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-11
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YES 11.2c 11.2c $-0.10 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election YES 8.8c 8.8c $-0.08 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential e YES 23.5c 23.5c $-0.12 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? YES 17.6c 17.6c $-0.10 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidentia YES 10.5c 10.5c $-0.04 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidenti YES 42.6c 42.6c $-0.32 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley YES 8.2c 8.2c $-0.01 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley C YES 36.0c 36.0c $-0.28 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian p YES 39.5c 39.5c $-0.06 (-0.1%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? YES 14.0c 14.0c $-0.04 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-12
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cu YES 39.9c 39.9c $-0.38 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-05-13
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? YES 44.6c 44.6c $-0.43 (-0.4%) FLAT 2026-05-13
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? YES 10.9c 10.9c $-0.03 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-13
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? YES 38.4c 38.4c $-0.29 (-0.3%) FLAT 2026-05-13
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? YES 13.6c 13.6c $-0.00 (-0.0%) FLAT 2026-05-13

Closed Trades (last 10)

MarketSideEntryExitP&LClosed
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor ElectioYES49.0c51.6c$+5.28 (+5.3%)2026-05-13
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15YES40.9c58.8c$+43.68 (+43.7%)2026-05-13
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YES21.5c79.0c$+267.38 (+267.4%)2026-05-13
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15YES21.9c32.3c$+47.76 (+47.8%)2026-05-13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?YES8.6c91.3c$+955.43 (+955.4%)2026-05-13
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YES28.5c22.0c$-22.75 (-22.7%)2026-05-13
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?NO6.4c2.9c$-53.89 (-53.9%)2026-05-12
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15YES35.3c64.0c$+81.22 (+81.2%)2026-05-12
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?YES40.2c44.6c$+11.04 (+11.0%)2026-05-13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?NO33.4c30.6c$-8.22 (-8.2%)2026-05-13

Add New Position (Paper Trade)





How PolyEdge Works — The Complete Picture

Step 1: The Scanner Finds an Edge

Every 15 minutes, PolyEdge pulls 200 active Polymarket markets and checks them against breaking news from 10 RSS feeds and 12 Bluesky accounts. When a headline matches a market, it scores the match and logs an alert. Score 5+ triggers an email to you.

Step 2: You Decide — Is This Real?

Not every alert is an edge. You check:

1. Is the news genuinely new? Not a rehash of yesterday's story.
2. Should it move the market? "Trump delays China visit" should move "Visit by April 30?" but not "Fed rate decision".
3. Has the market already moved? Check the current price on the Markets tab. If it's already crashed, you're too late.
4. Is there enough liquidity? Check the 24h volume. Over $100K = safe. Under $10K = avoid.

Step 3: You Buy

When the event is MORE likely

Buy YES shares.

Example: "Trump to visit China by May 31?" — White House confirms May 14-15 dates.
YES price is at 47 cents. Buy YES. Price should go up.

When the event is LESS likely

Buy NO shares.

Example: "Ceasefire by March 31?" — active bombing, no talks, 5 days left.
NO price is at 75 cents. Buy NO. Price should go up (YES goes down).

Step 4: You Watch — The Sell Signals

Once you've bought, the Positions tab tracks your trade live. Here's when to sell:

TAKE PROFIT
Price has moved 15%+ in your favour. The market has repriced. Sell now and bank the profit. Don't get greedy — the edge was the mispricing, not predicting the future.
TIME DECAY
Market deadline is within 3 days and you're profitable. Sell before resolution. Don't risk a surprise last-minute event. Take the sure money.
STOP LOSS
Price moved 10%+ against you. You were wrong, or new info changed the picture. Cut your losses. Sell at 90% of what you paid, not zero.
HOLD
Position is profitable but hasn't hit target. News is still playing out. Wait. Check again in an hour.

Step 5: You Sell

Go to Polymarket. Place a sell order (limit order at your target price, or market order for instant fill). USDC goes back to your wallet. Mark the position as closed on the Positions tab.

Total time in trade: typically 1 hour to 2 days.
Target return: 15-50% per trade on the stake.
Fee: 2% of profit only. If you lose, you pay nothing.

The Golden Rules

1. Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Otherwise you can't sell quickly.
2. Use limit orders. Market orders pay the spread. Limit orders don't.
3. Don't bet on the outcome. Bet on the price movement. Get in, get out.
4. Start with paper trades. Log positions here first. See if your instincts are right before risking real money.
5. Time decay is the safest edge. Markets near deadlines with obvious outcomes. Lowest risk.
6. Set a stop loss. If the price moves 10% against you, sell. Don't hold and hope.

System Architecture & Data Sources

PolyEdge runs entirely on free APIs. No paid tiers. No Claude API costs. Scans every 15 minutes via launchd.

Data Sources (All Free)

SourceWhatSpeedCost
Polymarket Gamma APIMarket metadata, prices, volumesREST pollFree
Polymarket CLOB APIPrice history, order bookREST pollFree
Polymarket WebSocketReal-time price changes<1sFree
Binance WebSocketBTC/ETH live prices<1sFree
RSS (10 feeds)Reuters, AP, BBC, Politico, CoinDesk, Al Jazeera, NPR30-45sFree
Bluesky Jetstream (12 accounts)AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WashPo, Guardian, Bloomberg, CNBC, Axios, Politico, CoinDesk<1sFree

How Matching Works

When a headline arrives, we extract keywords and match against all 200 active Polymarket markets. Entity keywords (trump, iran, bitcoin, ceasefire, election, etc.) get a 3x score boost. Alerts score 3+ are logged, score 5+ trigger an email.

Zero AI/Claude costs — pure keyword matching. No Claude API calls anywhere in the pipeline.

Files & Commands

~/polyedge/polyedge.pyMain CLI tool
~/polyedge/dashboard.pyThis dashboard
~/polyedge/data/edge_alerts.jsonlAlert log (append-only)
com.polyedge.scanLaunchd — scans every 15 mins + email
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan         # Quick scan now
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan --age 240 # Last 4 hours
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py watch --timeout 15 # Live stream 15 min
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py forensics iran  # Market forensics
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py log           # View alert log
python3 ~/polyedge/dashboard.py              # This dashboard

Phase Plan

Phase 1 (now): Paper trading. Scanner running, logging alerts, building data on edge windows. Understanding which markets and news sources give the best signals.
Phase 2: Small stakes ($50-100) on high-conviction edges. Focus on time-decay markets near deadlines and breaking-news edges where the window is 1+ hours.
Phase 3: API automation. Auto-detect crypto threshold crossings via Binance. Auto-place on time-decay markets approaching deadlines. Kelly Criterion stake sizing.

Original Research Files

polyedge-plan.docxFull system plan — Phase 1/2/3, architecture, cost control
polymarket-github-ecosystem.mdAPI/SDK research — all Polymarket repos, endpoints, tools
TimeGMT-Polymarket--Betfair--MARGIN.csvYastremska vs Pegula — 28% gap between Polymarket and Betfair
odds-Mira-Vs-Linda.csv2,428 data points — Polymarket lagged Betfair 40% of the time
PolyEdge Intelligence System | All data from free APIs | Total cost: $0.00