Last BUY: 2026-06-07T19:08:57 · CRYPTO · YES will-bitcoin-dip-to-59k-on-june-7
💵 Real Money Positions (Polymarket on-chain)
Live truth from Polymarket data-api · Wallet: $99.12 pUSD · Updated every 60s
$-2.55
Real Unrealised
4
Real Open
$2.63
Real Cost
$0.08
Real Value
Market
Side
Shares
Cost
Value
PnL%
Note
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? (will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win)
Yes
0.12sh
$0.02
$0.03
+23.3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? (hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026)
Yes
0.98sh
$0.09
$0.06
-38.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? (highest-temperature-in-hong-ko)
No
7.88sh
$1.26
$0.00
-100.0%
🪦 settled $0
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? (will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-may-4-)
Yes
7.88sh
$1.26
$0.00
-100.0%
🪦 settled $0
📜 Today's Real Fires Timeline (2026-06-07)
Time UTC
Kind
Play
Side / Reason
Slug
Price
PnL
19:09:29
CLOSE
CRYPTO
SL_FIRE
will-bitcoin-dip-to-59k-on-june-7
$0.055
$-0.97
19:08:57
BUY
CRYPTO
YES
will-bitcoin-dip-to-59k-on-june-7
$0.055
—
18:46:51
CLOSE
CRYPTO
TP_FIRE
will-bitcoin-reach-65000-in-june-2026-from-june-4
$0.290
$-0.09
18:45:54
BUY
CRYPTO
NO
will-bitcoin-reach-65000-in-june-2026-from-june-4
$0.285
—
🎯 Per-Play Today
🟢 = armed for real money · ⚫ = paper-only / fired today via legacy code
Play
BUYs Today
Closes Today
Realised PnL
🟢 CRYPTO
2
2
$-1.06
🟢 NEG_RISK
0
0
$+0.00
🟢 NEWS_EDGE
0
0
$+0.00
🟢 NEWS_FADE_LATE
0
0
$+0.00
🟢 TEMPORAL_ARB
0
0
$+0.00
🤖 Bot Health
TRADING_MODE: real · HALT: 🟢 OFF (live)
REAL_TRADING_PLAYS: CRYPTO, TEMPORAL_ARB, NEWS_FADE_LATE, NEG_RISK, NEWS_EDGE
Caps: stake $1.3 · max open $20.0 · max BUYs/day 10
Proxy: ✅ proxy=JP ip=153.249.229.252 polymarket=ok (2026-06-07T21:49:40)
📊 Show market scanner stats (alerts/markets counters)
200
Today's Alerts
200
Total Alerts
88
High Score (5+)
0
Active Markets
BTC $61,698
Binance Live
ETH $1,629
Binance Live
📚 Show educational content (March 2026 case studies, How It Works, Forensics)
The Edge Is Real — Proven Examples This Month
These are real price movements from March 2026. Each one shows: what happened, how long you had to act, and what a $100 bet would have returned. Every example uses actual Polymarket CLOB data.
Mar 16 — CNBC reports: Trump asks China to delay Xi meeting "a month or so" due to Iran war. Polymarket: "Visit by Apr 30?" still at 88.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 45.5%, then to 2.6%
24-36 hrs
Window
+$746
Profit / $100
88.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 869 NO shares at $0.115 ($100). Trump literally said on camera it's delayed. Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for 24+ hours. NO shares now worth $0.974 = $846. Profit: $746.
Mar 25 — White House briefing: Karoline Leavitt confirms Trump-Xi rescheduled to May 14-15. "Visit by April 30?" trading at 34.5%.
Will Trump visit China by April 30? — crashed to 2.6% within hours
~1 hr
Window
+$186
Profit / $100
34.5%
Price When News Broke
2.6%
Price Now
The trade: Buy 152 NO shares at $0.655 ($100). May dates confirmed = "by April 30" is dead. NO shares now $0.974 = $148. Profit: $186 total including resolution.
Mar 8-29 — Time decay: Iran war ongoing, daily bombings, no ceasefire talks. "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" was 24.5% with 23 days of active war.
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? — steadily dropped to 1.5%
Days-weeks
Window
+$30
Profit / $100
24.5%
Entry Price
1.5%
Price Now
The trade: Buy NO at $0.755. Active bombing campaign, no diplomatic channel — ceasefire by month end was clearly unrealistic. Safest edge type: time decay. The closer the deadline, the more certain the profit.
Mar 25 — Same news, opposite market: May 14-15 dates confirmed. "Visit by May 31?" jumped from 47.5% to 76%.
Will Trump visit China by May 31? — rose to 76%
~2 hrs
Window
+$60
Profit / $100
47.5%
Entry Price
76.0%
Price Now
The trade: Buy YES at $0.475. May 14-15 confirmed = "by May 31" very likely YES. Same news event, opposite side of a different market. $60 profit so far, likely $110+ at resolution.
Three Types of Edge — All Confirmed
1. Breaking News (minutes to hours) News breaks on Reuters/AP/Bluesky. Polymarket hasn't repriced. You bet in the gap. Trump/China had a 24-36 hour window. Most events: 1-4 hours.
2. Mispricing (days) Markets stay wrong for days. "Regime fall" at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Ceasefire at 24.5% during active bombing. Obvious to anyone watching the news.
3. Time Decay (predictable) Markets with hard deadlines converge to 0% or 100%. If the event clearly isn't happening, sell YES. Lowest risk, most reliable. The ceasefire market dropped steadily for 3 weeks.
Where the Edge Is Biggest (Non-Sports Categories)
Category
Volume
Edge Type
Window
Why
Geopolitics / Iran
$324M
Breaking news
Hours
Wars, strikes, diplomacy — wire services break first
US Politics / 2028
$1.9B
News + mispricing
Hours-days
Polls, endorsements, candidate drops — huge volume but slow
Crypto (BTC/ETH)
$119M
Binance lead
Seconds-mins
Binance price moves first. Polymarket thresholds lag behind
Crude Oil
$72M
Exchange lead
Minutes
Iran war = oil spikes. NYMEX leads, Polymarket follows
Fed / Interest Rates
$43M
Breaking news
Mins-hours
FOMC decisions, Fed speeches — wire services break first
World Elections
$95M
News lag
Hours-days
Local polls/coalition news breaks before English markets
Eurovision
$49M
Bookmaker lead
Hours
Rehearsal odds shift on traditional bookies first
Elon Musk Tweets
$21M
Data lead
Real-time
Literally counting tweets — scraping X gives you the answer
Edge Alerts (200 total, 200 today)
Scanner checks 200 markets against 10 RSS feeds + 12 Bluesky accounts every 15 minutes. High-score alerts (5+) are emailed to adam@muswellrose.com.
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?99.9%$5.7Misrael
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?25.5%$1.2Misrael
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?31.5%$440Kisrael
Live Polymarket Markets (Top 40 by 24h Volume)
Market
YES
24h
Volume
Crypto Price Edge — Binance vs Polymarket
Binance prices update every second. Polymarket threshold markets ("Will Bitcoin hit $X?") reprice minutes later. When Binance crosses a threshold, you can bet before Polymarket adjusts.
Bitcoin (Binance Live)
$61,697.98
Compare this against the Polymarket thresholds below. If BTC just crossed one, the market may not have repriced yet.
Ethereum (Binance Live)
$1,628.79
Same principle — if ETH just broke through a threshold, check if Polymarket has caught up.
Bitcoin Threshold Markets on Polymarket
Market
YES Price
24h Vol
No active BTC threshold markets found
Ethereum Threshold Markets on Polymarket
Market
YES Price
24h Vol
No active ETH threshold markets found
How the crypto edge works: Polymarket has markets like "Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 in March?" If BTC on Binance is at $89,500 and climbing fast, the Polymarket YES price might still be at 30-40 cents. By the time it crosses $90K, you've already bought YES cheap. This is the fastest, most automatable edge — no news interpretation needed.
Forensic Research: News Timestamps vs Market Movements
Cross-referencing when major news events actually broke against when Polymarket prices moved. The gap is the edge window.
Event 1: US-Iran War Begins — February 28, 2026
Feb 27, 20:38 UTCTrump gives order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury--
Feb 28, 06:35 UTCCENTCOM announces airstrikes have begunNEW
Feb 28, 06:45 UTCIsraeli Air Force strikes — Khamenei killedNEW
Mar 1$529M+ bet on Iran markets — Polymarket record dayRECORD
Market-creation event. Multiple new markets launched. Ceasefire started at 61% chance — now 1.5%. Early NO buyers made massive returns.
Event 2: Trump-Xi China Visit Postponement
Mar 16, ~14:00 UTCCNBC: Trump says delay "a month or so"88.5%
Mar 16, ~15:00 UTCWashington Post confirms postponement~85%
Mar 18, 00:00 UTCPolymarket finally crashes — 24-36hrs later45.5%
Mar 25, ~17:00 UTCWhite House confirms May 14-15 dates34.5%
Mar 25, 18:00 UTCPolymarket crashes — ~1hr this time2.6%
Key finding: Stage 1 had a 24-36 hour window. The President said on camera "we asked to delay" and Polymarket stayed at 88.5% for a full day. Stage 2 was faster (~1hr) but still tradeable. The market got more efficient the second time — but still not instant.
Event 3: Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Israel
Feb 28 - Mar 5Iran fires 500+ missiles and 2000+ drones--
Mar 1Beit Shemesh strike — 9 Israeli civilians killed--
Mar 10+Iranian attacks drop 90% — suppression working--
Mar 21Iran strikes near Dimona nuclear site — 180+ wounded--
"Regime fall" market was at 10.8% ten days into war with no collapse in sight. Smart money selling NO early would have profited steadily as it dropped to 0.7%.
Event 4: Ceasefire Market — Steady Decline
Mar 3Market launches at 52.5%52.5%
Mar 5Drops to 25.5% as war intensifies25.5%
Mar 8Settles around 24.5%24.5%
Mar 25Still no talks — drops further19.5%
Mar 292 days left, no ceasefire1.5%
Time decay edge: Active war, daily bombings, no diplomatic channel. This market was never going to resolve YES. Anyone who bought NO at any point profited. The closer the deadline, the more certain the return.
How to Trade on Polymarket (Buy Low, Sell High)
Polymarket is not just a betting platform — it's a full exchange. You can buy shares, sell them before the market resolves, and pocket the difference. Like trading stocks.
How a Trade Works
1. You spot an edge: "Ceasefire by Mar 31?" at 24.5%
2. Buy 132 NO shares at $0.755 each = $100 invested
3. Over 3 weeks, price drops to 1.5% (NO shares now worth $0.985)
4. You sell 132 NO shares at $0.985 = $130
5. Fee: 2% of $30 profit = $0.60
6. Net profit: $29.40 (29.4% return in 3 weeks)
Fees
Fee
Amount
Notes
Trading fee
2% on profit only
If you lose money, you pay zero
Deposit (crypto)
Free
Send USDC to your Polygon wallet
Deposit (card)
~3-5%
MoonPay credit/debit
Withdrawal
~$0.01
Polygon gas — negligible
Order Types
Type
How
When
Limit Order
Set your price, wait for fill
Default — avoids paying the spread
Market Order
Buy/sell immediately at best price
When speed matters (breaking news)
Liquidity & Spreads
Market Type
Spread
Slippage on $1K
Can You Exit Fast?
Top markets (Iran, elections)
1-2 cents
<0.5%
Yes, easily
Active ($50K+ vol)
2-5 cents
1-2%
Yes
Medium
5-10 cents
2-5%
Maybe
Low-liquidity
10-25+ cents
5-15%+
Risk of being stuck
Rule: Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Check order book depth before entering. Use limit orders unless racing a breaking-news edge.
UK Access
UK users can access Polymarket. No IP block. Not regulated by FCA or Gambling Commission. Profits likely treated as gambling winnings (tax-free in UK). Regulatory grey area — could change. Worth checking with a tax advisor if trading professionally.
Technical Setup
Chain
Polygon (PoS) — fast, cheap
Currency
USDC (stablecoin, pegged to $1)
Wallet
Created automatically — email login or MetaMask/WalletConnect
Track your trades. Add a position when you buy, and the system will track the current price, your P&L, and tell you when to sell.
Sell Signal Rules: TAKE PROFIT — Price moved 15%+ in your favour. Consider selling. HOLD — Position is profitable but hasn't hit target yet. STOP LOSS — Price moved 10%+ against you. Consider cutting losses. TIME DECAY — Market deadline within 3 days and position is profitable. Sell before resolution risk.
💵 Real Money Positions (Polymarket on-chain)
Live truth from Polymarket data-api · Wallet: $99.12 pUSD · Updated every 60s
$-2.55
Real Unrealised
4
Real Open
$2.63
Real Cost
$0.08
Real Value
Market
Side
Shares
Cost
Value
PnL%
Note
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? (will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win)
Yes
0.12sh
$0.02
$0.03
+23.3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? (hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026)
Yes
0.98sh
$0.09
$0.06
-38.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? (highest-temperature-in-hong-ko)
No
7.88sh
$1.26
$0.00
-100.0%
🪦 settled $0
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? (will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-may-4-)
Yes
7.88sh
$1.26
$0.00
-100.0%
🪦 settled $0
📄 Show legacy paper positions (81 open, 1571 closed)
$-26.89
Open P&L
81
Open Positions
1571
Closed Trades
$-371.26
Realised P&L
Open Positions
Market
Side
Entry
Now
P&L
Signal
Opened
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Electio
NO
98.9c
98.9c
$-0.16 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Electi
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election i
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Electio
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series?
NO
99.0c
99.0c
$-0.06 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?
NO
99.4c
99.4c
$-0.65 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?
NO
99.4c
99.4c
$-0.65 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential elect
NO
99.1c
99.1c
$-0.95 (-0.9%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential
NO
99.2c
99.2c
$-0.75 (-0.8%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential
NO
99.2c
99.2c
$-0.75 (-0.8%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential elect
NO
99.2c
99.2c
$-0.75 (-0.8%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential e
NO
99.2c
99.2c
$-0.75 (-0.8%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential e
NO
99.2c
99.2c
$-0.75 (-0.8%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential el
NO
99.4c
99.4c
$-0.65 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidenti
NO
99.4c
99.4c
$-0.65 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential
NO
99.4c
99.4c
$-0.65 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential e
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential el
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential ele
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential e
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian president
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian preside
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential el
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.6c
99.6c
$-0.45 (-0.4%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.7c
99.7c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-05-08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 20
NO
53.5c
53.5c
$-0.49 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cincinnati Bengals next?
NO
94.7c
94.7c
$-0.62 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next?
NO
96.0c
96.0c
$-0.11 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next?
NO
96.2c
96.2c
$-0.86 (-0.9%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?
NO
96.8c
96.8c
$-0.35 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next?
NO
96.9c
96.9c
$-0.24 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next?
NO
96.9c
96.9c
$-0.24 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next?
NO
97.0c
97.0c
$-0.04 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next?
NO
97.5c
97.5c
$-0.60 (-0.6%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Atlanta Falcons next?
NO
97.5c
97.5c
$-0.50 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?
NO
98.0c
98.0c
$-0.09 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next?
NO
98.5c
98.5c
$-0.52 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next?
NO
98.8c
98.8c
$-0.26 (-0.3%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?
NO
99.5c
99.5c
$-0.55 (-0.5%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?
NO
99.6c
99.6c
$-0.45 (-0.4%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New Orleans Saints next?
NO
99.6c
99.6c
$-0.45 (-0.4%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Miami Dolphins next?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.25 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.20 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.20 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next?
NO
99.8c
99.8c
$-0.20 (-0.2%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cleveland Browns next?
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Denver Broncos next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Giants next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Chargers next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for Buffalo Bills next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Maxx Crosby play for New England Patriots next?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher
NO
99.9c
99.9c
$-0.15 (-0.1%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-06-07?
NO
100.0c
100.0c
$-0.05 (-0.0%)
FLAT
2026-06-07
Closed Trades (last 10)
Market
Side
Entry
Exit
P&L
Closed
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7?
YES
13.0c
5.5c
$-0.98 (-57.7%)
2026-06-07
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?
NO
31.0c
71.0c
$+1.60 (+120.7%)
2026-06-07
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?
NO
28.5c
31.5c
$+15.78 (+10.5%)
2026-06-07
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07?
NO
47.0c
90.6c
$+92.43 (+92.4%)
2026-06-07
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw?
NO
0.5c
0.1c
$-90.00 (-90.0%)
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7
NO
100.0c
0.1c
$-99.85 (-99.9%)
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7
NO
100.0c
0.1c
$-99.85 (-99.9%)
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7
NO
100.0c
0.1c
$-99.85 (-99.9%)
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7
NO
99.5c
0.1c
$-99.35 (-99.4%)
2026-06-07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7
NO
90.5c
98.5c
$+8.80 (+8.8%)
2026-06-07
Add New Position (Paper Trade)
How PolyEdge Works — The Complete Picture
Step 1: The Scanner Finds an Edge
Every 15 minutes, PolyEdge pulls 200 active Polymarket markets and checks them against breaking news from 10 RSS feeds and 12 Bluesky accounts. When a headline matches a market, it scores the match and logs an alert. Score 5+ triggers an email to you.
Step 2: You Decide — Is This Real?
Not every alert is an edge. You check:
1. Is the news genuinely new? Not a rehash of yesterday's story. 2. Should it move the market? "Trump delays China visit" should move "Visit by April 30?" but not "Fed rate decision". 3. Has the market already moved? Check the current price on the Markets tab. If it's already crashed, you're too late. 4. Is there enough liquidity? Check the 24h volume. Over $100K = safe. Under $10K = avoid.
Step 3: You Buy
When the event is MORE likely
Buy YES shares.
Example: "Trump to visit China by May 31?" — White House confirms May 14-15 dates.
YES price is at 47 cents. Buy YES. Price should go up.
When the event is LESS likely
Buy NO shares.
Example: "Ceasefire by March 31?" — active bombing, no talks, 5 days left.
NO price is at 75 cents. Buy NO. Price should go up (YES goes down).
Step 4: You Watch — The Sell Signals
Once you've bought, the Positions tab tracks your trade live. Here's when to sell:
TAKE PROFIT Price has moved 15%+ in your favour. The market has repriced. Sell now and bank the profit. Don't get greedy — the edge was the mispricing, not predicting the future.
TIME DECAY Market deadline is within 3 days and you're profitable. Sell before resolution. Don't risk a surprise last-minute event. Take the sure money.
STOP LOSS Price moved 10%+ against you. You were wrong, or new info changed the picture. Cut your losses. Sell at 90% of what you paid, not zero.
HOLD Position is profitable but hasn't hit target. News is still playing out. Wait. Check again in an hour.
Step 5: You Sell
Go to Polymarket. Place a sell order (limit order at your target price, or market order for instant fill). USDC goes back to your wallet. Mark the position as closed on the Positions tab.
Total time in trade: typically 1 hour to 2 days. Target return: 15-50% per trade on the stake. Fee: 2% of profit only. If you lose, you pay nothing.
The Golden Rules
1. Only trade markets with >$100K volume. Otherwise you can't sell quickly.
2. Use limit orders. Market orders pay the spread. Limit orders don't.
3. Don't bet on the outcome. Bet on the price movement. Get in, get out.
4. Start with paper trades. Log positions here first. See if your instincts are right before risking real money.
5. Time decay is the safest edge. Markets near deadlines with obvious outcomes. Lowest risk.
6. Set a stop loss. If the price moves 10% against you, sell. Don't hold and hope.
System Architecture & Data Sources
PolyEdge runs entirely on free APIs. No paid tiers. No Claude API costs. Scans every 15 minutes via launchd.
Data Sources (All Free)
Source
What
Speed
Cost
Polymarket Gamma API
Market metadata, prices, volumes
REST poll
Free
Polymarket CLOB API
Price history, order book
REST poll
Free
Polymarket WebSocket
Real-time price changes
<1s
Free
Binance WebSocket
BTC/ETH live prices
<1s
Free
RSS (10 feeds)
Reuters, AP, BBC, Politico, CoinDesk, Al Jazeera, NPR
When a headline arrives, we extract keywords and match against all 200 active Polymarket markets. Entity keywords (trump, iran, bitcoin, ceasefire, election, etc.) get a 3x score boost. Alerts score 3+ are logged, score 5+ trigger an email.
Zero AI/Claude costs — pure keyword matching. No Claude API calls anywhere in the pipeline.
Files & Commands
~/polyedge/polyedge.py
Main CLI tool
~/polyedge/dashboard.py
This dashboard
~/polyedge/data/edge_alerts.jsonl
Alert log (append-only)
com.polyedge.scan
Launchd — scans every 15 mins + email
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan # Quick scan now
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py scan --age 240 # Last 4 hours
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py watch --timeout 15 # Live stream 15 min
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py forensics iran # Market forensics
python3 ~/polyedge/polyedge.py log # View alert log
python3 ~/polyedge/dashboard.py # This dashboard
Phase Plan
Phase 1 (now): Paper trading. Scanner running, logging alerts, building data on edge windows. Understanding which markets and news sources give the best signals.
Phase 2: Small stakes ($50-100) on high-conviction edges. Focus on time-decay markets near deadlines and breaking-news edges where the window is 1+ hours.
Phase 3: API automation. Auto-detect crypto threshold crossings via Binance. Auto-place on time-decay markets approaching deadlines. Kelly Criterion stake sizing.
Original Research Files
polyedge-plan.docx
Full system plan — Phase 1/2/3, architecture, cost control
polymarket-github-ecosystem.md
API/SDK research — all Polymarket repos, endpoints, tools
TimeGMT-Polymarket--Betfair--MARGIN.csv
Yastremska vs Pegula — 28% gap between Polymarket and Betfair
odds-Mira-Vs-Linda.csv
2,428 data points — Polymarket lagged Betfair 40% of the time